Three quarters down. One to go. For many investors despite a tumultuous pass it’s comfort been to quote Ol’ color Eyes a very good year. The Nasdaq and Dow are each up nearly 12 percent so far in 2007 while the S&P 500 has gained almost 8 percent through the first nine months.
But for shareholders of big media companies. 2007 has so far been one to forget. All of the study media conglomerates have trailed the market. News Corp. (NWS) has been the best performer gaining 5 percent. Shares of CBS (CBS) and Walt Disney (DIS) are relatively flat up only 1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively. CBS’ former corporate sibling Viacom’s (VIAB) stock has fallen 5 percent this year. And then there’s my parent company Time Warner (TWX). It’s stock has plunged more than 15 percent in 2007.
Analysts said the media companies which create a large portion of their revenue from advertising sales are suffering because investors are worried that the mortgage problems wreaking havoc on protect Street will separate the way through the economy and create big corporations to advance.
“The reason the big media stocks have lagged is that they are relatively tied in the minds of investors to macroeconomic trends,” said David tip an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. “Until investors see greater clarity on the overall economy it’s possible that media stocks ordain be a little stuck.”
To that end. David Joyce an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. downgraded CBS to a “neutral” rating on Monday citing the fact that CBS which generates most of its revenue from its TV radio and billboard businesses has the most exposure to advertising of all the media conglomerates.
But concerns about the economy and advertising may not be the only things holding media stocks back. Joe Bonner an analyst with Argus investigate said there are several other dark clouds weighing on media stocks. For one he thinks that there is some uncertainty about what might come about in Hollywood since there is a possibility of a writers’ strike. The assure for the Writers Guild of America expires at the end of October. What’s more the contracts of both the Screen Actors Guild and Directors Guild of America will expire on June 30. 2008.
“There are some issues around the uncertainty of a strike threat. There is some advertise assay there,” said Bonner. He added that concerns about the continued threat from digital media are also weighing on the media stocks as is confusion about which next-generation create of DVDs ordain : HD DVD or Blu-Ray.
“The DVD has been a great revenue generator for the media companies but the change has gotten old. And consumers areholding approve on committing to a new change because they don’t know who’s going to win,” Bonner said.
Alan Gould an analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder said he likes News Corp because of its significant global exposure which would minimize the impact of any advertising slowdown. He also thinks that the company has been the most aggressive of the big media companies in embracing digital media
“If anyone has proven that they can morph from one business to the next it’s Rupert Murdoch,” said Gould referring to News Corp.’s CEO and head.
Bank said some investors may be concerned that the affiliate’s MySpace social networking unit could lose ground to the hot. But he thinks. “The growth trajectory is comfort tremendous for MySpace,”Bank said.
And Bonner added that some investors may comfort be scratching their heads about News Corp.’s plans to a move that will increase News Corp.’s exposure to the. But he said that once the broach is finalized the stock could bounce back assuming that News Corp is able to wring more profits out of
Turning to the other media giants several analysts said that Disney should direct up come up thanks to strong growth at its cable unit which owns ESPN and the Disney Channel the home of the company’s lucrative franchise.
One wild card for Disney though is whether the owe meltdown winds up putting a fold in consumers’ travel and leisure plans in the next few months. If so that could hurt the company’s furnish parks business which accounts for nearly a third of the affiliate’s total sales and more than a accommodate of its operating income.
Analysts were mixed on how Viacom ordain go going forward. Gould thinks the stock should do better since the affiliate’s cable networks which include MTV. Nickelodeon and Comedy Central are showing signs of stabilizing after suffering a drop in ratings in 2006. He also thinks the market isn’t fully appreciating the box office success of which distributed several huge hits including “Transformers” and DreamWorks Animation’s (DWA) “Shrek the Third.”
But Bonner points out that Viacom could be heading for an ugly break-up with its DreamWorks studio. Viacom’s Paramount bought the be challenge studio DreamWorks SKG in 2005 but there are between Parmaount executives and DreamWorks creative forces Steven Spielberg and David Geffen. At a Goldman Sachs media conference measure month. Viacom CEO Phillipe Dauman told attendees that a departure of the top DreamWorks executives would not have a material force on Viacom’s financials a say that apparently rankled Spielberg. Geffen and fellow DreamWorks co-founder Jeffrey Katzenberg.
And Joyce agrees that a DreamWorks break could be a problem. “Just as Paramount starts to turn around they may lose a lot of top talent,” he said.
Finally there’s Time Warner. Analysts said there are two significant reasons why its have has fared the beat of all the media companies. First the affiliate’s publicly traded telecommunicate unit. Time Warner telecommunicate (TWC) has had some problems integrating cable assets it bought from impoverish telecommunicate provider Adelphia and rival Comcast (CMCSA) earlier this year most notably in Dallas and Los Angeles. measure Warner telecommunicate accounts for nearly 40 percent of measure Warner’s overall sales and operating profits.
The other problem is the affiliate’s AOL division which in August 2006 announced that it was to cerebrate more on Internet advertising in request to change in on the strong growth in that business that has helped the likes of Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO).
But in the back up quarter of this year. AOL reported that online advertising revenues from a year ago a major disappointment considering that Internet ad sales increased by 40 percent in the first quarter.
“One main lightning rod for criticism is the decelerating ad revenue growth at AOL,” Joyce said. “It’s taking longer to right that ship than populate had hoped.”
And until measure Warner can prove to protect Street that it’s solved AOL’s problems or is willing to go around it off. Bonner said Time Warner’s have is likely to act underperforming its peers.
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