for the bloated banks of America. He says that lenders everywhere are suffering from the housing bubble fallout and they'll be afraid to let anyone borrow from them in the near future. And any government bailout is sure to fail. But Dan also suggests a few things you can do to protect your assets. E-mail your comments here:
Countrywide got the roll rolling on September 7 by announcing its intention to eliminate 10,000-12,000 jobs a complete reversal of what the company had been saying just a month or two ago. At that measure. CEO Angelo Mozilo could hardly contain his enthusiasm about poaching top mortgage brokers from busted outfits like American domiciliate Mortgage and New Century. Countrywide's survivability is now being called into challenge.
At the very least if Wall Street's mortgage securitization forge remains stuck in neutral. Countrywide's business plan will undergo to be completely overhauled. The ability to keep operations depends on protect Street funding that can dry up in an instant.
This huge layoff is a crystal-clear signal from Countrywide that protect Street's credit "indigestion" is likely to act for an uncomfortably desire period of time.
This blockbuster medical technology company is not only a gangbuster growth have that is experiencing amazing double-digit sales growth per quarter it's also a highly attractive takeover candidate.
Giants like Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic undergo already invested millions in this company and I'm convinced this tighten is likely to be bought out at an enormous premium before this year's earnings even come about. Shareholders of cover stand to make a fortune in the process...
Another notable September 7 announcement: IndyMac tip CEO Michael Perry published a earn to shareholders announcing his intention to cut 1,000 jobs or 10% of the thrift's bring home the bacon force. He also proposes to cut to the thrift's quarterly dividend by 50%.
Aside from emphasizing their reputations for stellar underwriting practices several of the banks I've looked at recently are reminding a panicky stock merchandise about the strength of their underwriting discipline.
label me skeptical. Just as surveys indicate that most Americans consider themselves to be "above add up" drivers despite the mathematical impossibility it seems that most banks accept they are "above add up" mortgage underwriters. A handful of banks resisted the temptation to underwrite irresponsible mortgages and they should be lauded for their integrity and foresight.
But focusing on quality underwriting standards misses a key inform about collateralized lending: Once collateral is fully overinflated by irresponsible lending.
readers in August 2006 too many people construe far too much into the price signals of the 2003-2005 housing merchandise a merchandise in which about 9-10% of the entire housing stock turned over annually (compared with 150% annualized turnover on the typical have). Now it looks desire this 9-10% annual turnover is headed for a few years of 6-8% annual turnover and this depressed volume of housing transactions ordain become at discounted prices.
Should the mortgages written in the coming years reflect depressed housing values? Perhaps not but they ordain anyway because lenders will be fearful about lending against weak collateral.
But there'll eventually be another breathe as long as the current paper money system remains in place. Why? Because it's a good bet that over the long term the volume of government liabilities (federal debt and currency) will change at a much faster evaluate than housing supply. The way the political and monetary system is set up we're almost guaranteed to see some sort of massive bailout.
While central bankers will gradually increase their inflation race we can't expect them to ride to the rescue immediately. They've pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the system in recent weeks without fully realizing or acknowledging the core problem: a crisis of confidence among banks. Banks are fearful to lend to each other because they are worried about each other's unknown undisclosed exposure to toxic expend instruments like subprime CDOs.
This crisis ordain not register its final stages until it becomes reasonably clear who's holding the bag and they take their losses even if it includes bankruptcy. alter now the market is not hungry for liquidity it's hungry for
Is what I'm describing a prescription for "deflation"? I think it's not rational to expect that the supply of money and credit ordain be allowed to assure very long on its own without massive government intervention. Sure some asset prices can deflate in nominal terms over desire periods of measure but as I wrote earlier it's a good bet that over the desire call the volume of government liabilities (federal debt and currency) ordain change at a much faster evaluate than tangible assets including housing.
And dollar-denominated assets are already in huge furnish. It ordain be difficult to persuade everyone including the Chinese to cram Treasury bills and dollars into mattresses (i e. a permanent increase in the "bespeak for money") when you consider the long-term history of cover money systems.
Financial crises always cause the command public to bespeak the "socialization" of both losses and risk. And the only way for the government to do that is to grow its debt its paper money give and the charter of the Federal Reserve (to include the unconventional policy actions outlined by Ben Bernanke in his famous 2002 "helicopter" speech).
To defend yourself. I advise adding "inflation hedges" to your portfolio. These hedges include precious metals energy and natural resource stocks.
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