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"The Case for No Recession Below is an article from the WSJ that ..." posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-12-21 16:07:48

The Case for No RecessionBelow is an article from the that basically states the case for no recession. You may not accept with the compose’s premise and admittedly economist have a dismal track record when it comes to predicting recessions but it is always worth hearing all the points of view so you can alter your own decision. With all that said note that what caused measure recession may or may not have anything to do with the next recession so everyone must be careful with comparisons are not created equal. Despite recent financial turmoil and a dismal housing market there are key reasons why the economy will continue to expand albeit at a modest pace and not go into recession. Businesses are well poised to absorb a period of weaker product demand and are unlikely to significantly alter their hiring and investment behavior. Consumer spending is supported by rising incomes. Exports are strong. And monetary policy is consistent with sustained growth in domestic bespeak. Next year we will be back and once again marvel at the flexibility and resilience of the economy. To be sure there is bad news. Housing construction and prices will act to fall at least through 2008. There is an 18-year high in the inventory of unsold homes and soft sales that are constrained by several factors including expectations that home prices have further to fall. The blow up in domiciliate ownership which rose dramatically to nearly 70% in 2005 from 64% in 1994 has proved just as unsustainable as the reliance on subprime mortgages. That blow up has begun to recede and displace prices and onerous adjustable-rate mortgage resets point toward a modest further decline -- each one percentage inform represents about one million homes. That decline along with foreclosures will elongate the housing inventory adjustment apply downward compel on prices keep builders on the sidelines and shrink employment in construction and the home finance sector. Strong U. S exports and less reliance on imports reflecting healthy economies overseas and the weaker U. S dollar are boosting production and job creation here. During the housing boom years 2002-2005 residential construction added an average 0.4 percentage points per year to real GDP as the widening trade deficit subtracted 0.6 percent. That's now reversing. Since mid-2006 while the decline in residential construction has subtracted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth the narrowing change deficit has added 0.5 percentage points. Expect more of the same. During the late stages of prior economic expansions as product demand slumped in response to excessive monetary restriction firms tended to maintain production and employment growth resulting in large inventory overhangs. Business capital spending also tended to grow too rapidly -- witness the late 1990s investment boom. Consequently most of the decline in real GDP during prior recessions was attributable to inventory liquidation which meant cutbacks in production and jobs and sharp reductions in capital spending. Presently those conditions don't exist. Businesses in a wide range of industries outside of the housing sector have nimbly adjusted their production processes and inventories are very lean. That significantly reduces the potential impact of any slowdown in demand on production and employment. Similarly firms have constrained investment spending while maintaining high cash balances. Following the capital spending go of the 1990s the unwinding of the capital stock net of depreciation also lowers the probability of a jarring reduction in business investment spending. Third. Fed monetary policy points toward sustained growth in nominal spending. Despite the financial turmoil credit remains available to basic businesses and the vast majority of households and a command "ascribe make noise" is highly unlikely to develop. Historically real disposable personal income has been the dominant factor driving consumer spending. As desire as businesses maintain employment and wages continue to rise reflecting tight fight markets rising personal income will outweigh the contradict impacts of declining domiciliate prices declines in mortgage refinancing and even the recent increase in energy prices on consumption. This assessment presumes that businesses ordain not cut net jobs. No doubt jobs ordain be lost in some industries -- real estate mortgage brokers and related finance to name a few. But that's minor in the context of 138 million U. S workers. Fourth my discussions with a wide array of business executives in an assortment of non-financial industries suggest that they undergo not materially altered their hiring plans despite heightened concerns about general economic conditions. The majority intend to maintain employment levels or change magnitude them in the next year with most of the planned increases in export and international-related activities. September's reported rise in employment covering the period of maximum financial crisis is encouraging. Once again turmoil on Wall Street doesn't necessarily ingeminate to contraction on Main Street. Remember following both the stock market crash of 1987 (which involved a cumulative 35% decline in equity valuations) and the 1998 financial crisis the economy continued to grow. In both cases the Fed eased financial markets absorbed the shock and the economy proved resilient. The same will unfold this measure; recession is not in the cards. "Consequently most of the decline in real GDP during prior recessions was attributable to inventory liquidation which meant cutbacks in production and jobs and sharp reductions in capital spending. Presently those conditions don't exist."I highly be with this argument. This whole bear on merchandise\economic boom measure was ONLY based on unsually lax lending standards and real-estate speculation. (Although there are many causes to those phenomena.) There has been no new industry desire the Internet in the last bull run and there hasn't been some great new productivity innovation either. The list liquidation occuring now while most visible in the real-estate market extends far beyond that. There are many more industries than construction and mortgage companies that expanded and rode on the back of the RE build-up and they ordain have to collapse. And most of the other industries also expanded because of consumers ability to acquire from home equity from selling homes at inflated prices and from borrowing on credit cards etc. Same with businesses and same with financial companies. EVERYONE borrowed heavily to fund this expansion. And ALL of the excess ordain have to liquidate. And throughout all of history every purely speculative bubble has ended in severe economic contraction. And this has been the largest credit bubble ever seen by man. Whether the economy will contract slowly over years or quickly in a crash. I don't know but I can confidently state there ordain be a recession resulting from this. Some believe the Fed ordain re-inflate for one measure hurrah but other than a possible small irrational have merchandise rise lasting process spring. I don't see that as a possiblity for a variety of reasons. The intend of this communicate or web place is to discuss various economic financial and related statistical issues. This blog or web site reflects my opinions except of course those made by individuals as comments to the various posts. Statements on this place do not be the views or policies of any employer past or show or any other organization with which I may be affiliated. The information on this place is provided for discussion purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Under no circumstances should the information on this blog or web site represent a recommendation on how to buy or sell securities or on which securities to buy or sell. Please take responsibility for your own trades.

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http://commonsenseforecaster.blogspot.com/2007/10/case-for-no-recession-below-is-article.html

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"The Case for No Recession Below is an article from the WSJ that ..." posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-12-21 16:07:48

The inspect for No RecessionBelow is an article from the that basically states the case for no recession. You may not agree with the author’s premise and admittedly economist undergo a dismal track preserve when it comes to predicting recessions but it is always worth hearing all the points of view so you can make your own decision. With all that said note that what caused last recession may or may not have anything to do with the next recession so everyone must be careful with comparisons are not created equal. Despite recent financial turmoil and a dismal housing market there are key reasons why the economy will continue to expand albeit at a modest pace and not go into recession. Businesses are come up poised to sorb a period of weaker product bespeak and are unlikely to significantly alter their hiring and investment behavior. Consumer spending is supported by rising incomes. Exports are strong. And monetary policy is consistent with sustained growth in domestic bespeak. Next year we will look back and once again marvel at the flexibility and resilience of the economy. To be sure there is bad news. Housing construction and prices ordain act to fall at least through 2008. There is an 18-year high in the inventory of unsold homes and soft sales that are constrained by several factors including expectations that home prices have further to fall. The blow up in home ownership which rose dramatically to nearly 70% in 2005 from 64% in 1994 has proved just as unsustainable as the reliance on subprime mortgages. That surge has begun to recede and displace prices and onerous adjustable-rate mortgage resets point toward a modest advance decline -- each one percentage point represents about one million homes. That decline along with foreclosures ordain elongate the housing inventory adjustment exert downward compel on prices act builders on the sidelines and decrease employment in construction and the home finance sector. Strong U. S exports and less reliance on imports reflecting healthy economies overseas and the weaker U. S dollar are boosting production and job creation here. During the housing go years 2002-2005 residential construction added an average 0.4 percentage points per year to real GDP as the widening trade deficit subtracted 0.6 percent. That's now reversing. Since mid-2006 while the decline in residential construction has subtracted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth the narrowing trade deficit has added 0.5 percentage points. evaluate more of the same. During the late stages of prior economic expansions as product demand slumped in response to excessive monetary restriction firms tended to keep production and employment growth resulting in large inventory overhangs. Business capital spending also tended to change too rapidly -- witness the late 1990s investment boom. Consequently most of the decline in real GDP during prior recessions was attributable to inventory liquidation which meant cutbacks in production and jobs and sharp reductions in capital spending. Presently those conditions don't exist. Businesses in a wide range of industries outside of the housing sector have nimbly adjusted their production processes and inventories are very bend. That significantly reduces the potential impact of any slowdown in bespeak on production and employment. Similarly firms undergo constrained investment spending while maintaining high cash balances. Following the capital spending boom of the 1990s the unwinding of the capital stock net of depreciation also lowers the probability of a jarring reduction in business investment spending. Third. Fed monetary policy points toward sustained growth in nominal spending. Despite the financial turmoil ascribe remains available to basic businesses and the vast majority of households and a general "ascribe crunch" is highly unlikely to develop. Historically real disposable personal income has been the dominant factor driving consumer spending. As long as businesses maintain employment and wages act to go reflecting tight labor markets rising personal income will outweigh the negative impacts of declining domiciliate prices declines in mortgage refinancing and even the recent change magnitude in energy prices on consumption. This assessment presumes that businesses will not cut net jobs. No disbelieve jobs will be lost in some industries -- real estate mortgage brokers and related finance to name a few. But that's minor in the context of 138 million U. S workers. Fourth my discussions with a wide arrange of business executives in an assortment of non-financial industries declare that they have not materially altered their hiring plans despite heightened concerns about general economic conditions. The majority plan to maintain employment levels or increase them in the next year with most of the planned increases in export and international-related activities. September's reported rise in employment covering the period of maximum financial crisis is encouraging. Once again turmoil on Wall Street doesn't necessarily ingeminate to contraction on Main Street. Remember following both the stock market crash of 1987 (which involved a cumulative 35% decline in equity valuations) and the 1998 financial crisis the economy continued to expand. In both cases the Fed eased financial markets absorbed the shock and the economy proved resilient. The same will unfold this time; recession is not in the cards. "Consequently most of the decline in real GDP during prior recessions was attributable to list liquidation which meant cutbacks in production and jobs and sharp reductions in capital spending. Presently those conditions don't exist."I highly be with this argument. This whole bear on market\economic boom measure was ONLY based on unsually lax lending standards and real-estate speculation. (Although there are many causes to those phenomena.) There has been no new industry desire the Internet in the measure bull run and there hasn't been some great new productivity innovation either. The inventory liquidation occuring now while most visible in the real-estate market extends far beyond that. There are many more industries than construction and mortgage companies that expanded and rode on the back of the RE build-up and they will undergo to collapse. And most of the other industries also expanded because of consumers ability to borrow from home equity from selling homes at inflated prices and from borrowing on credit cards etc. Same with businesses and same with financial companies. EVERYONE borrowed heavily to fund this expansion. And ALL of the excess will have to liquidate. And throughout all of history every purely speculative bubble has ended in severe economic contraction. And this has been the largest credit bubble ever seen by man. Whether the economy will contract slowly over years or quickly in a crash. I don't experience but I can confidently state there ordain be a recession resulting from this. Some believe the Fed will re-inflate for one last hurrah but other than a possible small irrational stock market rise lasting till move. I don't see that as a possiblity for a variety of reasons. The intend of this communicate or web site is to address various economic financial and related statistical issues. This communicate or web site reflects my opinions except of course those made by individuals as comments to the various posts. Statements on this site do not be the views or policies of any employer past or present or any other organization with which I may be affiliated. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Under no circumstances should the information on this blog or web site represent a recommendation on how to buy or change securities or on which securities to buy or sell. gratify take responsibility for your own trades.

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Related article:
http://commonsenseforecaster.blogspot.com/2007/10/case-for-no-recession-below-is-article.html

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"How to Start a Home-Based Business as a Mortgage Broker" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-10-18 07:02:53

Many people have begun shying away from trying to break into the self-employed real estate business. This is because changes in the housing market across the nation have made people think that this is a bad industry to get into at the current time. That’s actually not the case. If you are willing to put in some effort to learn about changes in the industry and how to help serve your clients you can do well these days with a home-based real estate business. If you’ve always wanted to work for yourself as a mortgage broker and have been holding off because of the market you should stop waiting and start thinking about getting that business up and running. Before you start your home-based business as a mortgage broker you will want to make sure that you understand the market that you are getting in to. A lot of things have happened in recent years that a mortgage broker must be aware of. For example the sub-prime mortgage bust has greatly affected the housing industry in different parts of the country. You will want to be well-aware of the ups and downs of the industry. This isn’t just so that you can know it for yourself but so you can share this information with your new clients. In fact as you begin your home-based mortgage broker career you will want to establish your credibility in the industry by letting clients know up front about the research that you’ve done into the field. When you set up your website you should include articles which you have penned about the mortgage industry. This increases your credibility and will help you gain business. If you can get some work like this published on other sites or in magazines you will do even better for yourself in your new career. People these days want to know that they are working with a mortgage broker who is knowledgeable and trusted. You’ll also want to make sure that you have the credentials you need to be a mortgage broker. This means that you’ll have to take some to get some certifications. The actual certifications vary depending on your geographic location. Make sure that you look into this as you launch your mortgage broker business and get all set up with the things that you need. You don’t want to launch a business and start to get clients only to find yourself shut down due to legalities. You’ll want to join the National Association of Mortgage Brokers for assistance with these kinds of details as well as for additional credibility. In addition to the mortgage broker certifications you will need a business license and business tax ID. Working with your government licensing agencies will help you get all of this taken care of. You’ll have a lot of decisions to make when you start a home-based mortgage broker business. You’ll need to determine what neighborhoods you’re comfortable working in what types of clients you want to take on and which types of mortgage loans you most want to work with. You’ll also need to decide how you are going to market yourself within the community and how you are going to network with real estate agents and lenders. But one decision you won’t have to make anymore is whether or not to become a mortgage broker because you’ll already be one!

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http://www.allworkathomeideas.com/blog/2007/10/10/how-to-start-a-home-based-business-mortgage-broker/

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"Polk Represented in Mortgage Group" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-12 17:44:41

WINTER HAVEN | The Central Chapter of the Florida Association of owe Brokers' executive committee just received new Polk County representation. Gale Turner and Jay Scharff were recently elected to the board. Turner will serve as the chapter's vice president and Scharff will serve as the secretary. Both are practicing mortgage brokers for Delta Mortgage assort in Winter Haven."I am happy to be elected and to serve them," Turner said. "I evaluate it is going to be a learning turn for me. There's a lot to be done."The Central Florida chapter is the largest in the state for the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers with 732 members. While the chapter does not have a designated geographical region its members are primarily from Lake. Polk. Osceola. Orange and Seminole counties."There is some overlap," Scharff said. "But basically we cover Central Florida."The Florida Association of owe Brokers which began in 1960 is also the oldest and largest professional mortgage brokers association in the country. Scharff said. The association represents almost 80,000 mortgage industry professionals."It has given me a lot of assistance to work within my industry," Turner said. "It is a similar association to the Florida Builders Association and the Florida Association of Realtors."The assort holds meetings in Maitland once a month. Turner is preparing for her new role as vice president."I'm basically the president's gopher," she said. Turner will set up command meetings plan seminars and back up in making sure the group's annual goals are met including its annual charitable contributions. Scharff will be in charge of taking meeting minutes organizing the agenda in the proper format and making sure the board follows the association's bylaws. Currently the mortgage industry is facing a difficult time of sluggish home sales and timid buyers. But Turner thinks Polk is in a prime lay."I don't see Florida as being as vulnerable," Turner said of the local real estate and mortgage market. "But it has certainly slowed down both on the real estate and mortgage sides. But I don't evaluate it is going to act as long in Polk County as some other places (in Florida) to rebound. We are working our fannies off."[ Jeremy Maready can be reached at 863-802-7592 or. construe his blogs at realestate theledger com ] measure modified: October 06. 2007 8:32AM

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"Mortgage brokers prepare for 40 percent drop in business" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-03 20:13:04

Group: Admin Posts: 10,715 Joined: 30-April 05 From: West Sussex Member No.: 9Status: STRText:: global accommodate price come down LONDON (Citywire) - owe brokers and packagers are drawing up contingency plans to ensure they could survive a business downturn of 40 percent the Society of owe Professionals has said. A series of setbacks in the money markets has knocked confidence in the UK property merchandise with former Federal keep back chairman Alan Greenspan becoming the latest to inform of "fragility" last week."A lot of packagers are reviewing their business models and re-scoping their businesses," said Richard Fox director of the Society of owe Professionals.

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"Mortgage brokers prepare for 40 percent drop in business" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-03 20:13:02

assort: Admin Posts: 10,715 Joined: 30-April 05 From: West Sussex Member No.: 9Status: STRText:: global house determine crash LONDON (Citywire) - owe brokers and packagers are drawing up contingency plans to ensure they could survive a business downturn of 40 percent the Society of owe Professionals has said. A series of setbacks in the money markets has knocked confidence in the UK property market with former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan becoming the latest to warn of "fragility" measure week."A lot of packagers are reviewing their business models and re-scoping their businesses," said Richard Fox director of the Society of Mortgage Professionals.

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"Mortgage brokers prepare for 40 percent drop in business" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-03 20:13:02

assort: Admin Posts: 10,715 Joined: 30-April 05 From: West Sussex Member No.: 9Status: STRText:: global house determine come down LONDON (Citywire) - owe brokers and packagers are drawing up contingency plans to ensure they could survive a business downturn of 40 percent the Society of Mortgage Professionals has said. A series of setbacks in the money markets has knocked confidence in the UK property market with former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan becoming the latest to warn of "fragility" last week."A lot of packagers are reviewing their business models and re-scoping their businesses," said Richard Fox director of the Society of owe Professionals.

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http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=23210

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"Mortgage brokers prepare for 40 percent drop in business" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-03 20:13:02

Group: Admin Posts: 10,715 Joined: 30-April 05 From: West Sussex Member No.: 9Status: STRText:: global house price crash LONDON (Citywire) - Mortgage brokers and packagers are drawing up contingency plans to ensure they could survive a business downturn of 40 percent the Society of owe Professionals has said. A series of setbacks in the money markets has knocked confidence in the UK property market with former Federal keep back head Alan Greenspan becoming the latest to warn of "fragility" last week."A lot of packagers are reviewing their business models and re-scoping their businesses," said Richard Fox director of the Society of Mortgage Professionals.

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"Real Estate and Mortgage Jobs Are Going to India" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-11-22 18:55:04

My label is Moe and I am a homeowner advocate loss mitigation analyst and loan scene investigator. My goal is to ameliorate borrowers about loan modifications and loan workouts with theirlenders. I subject what lenders and servicers are really doing in regards to their loss mitigation efforts and it isn't pretty. Hopefully you will leave this blog a little bit wiser then when youcame. If so then I haven't blogged in vain. Let's approach reality here boys and girls. The real estate and mortgage market changed over night and it will NEVER. EVER be the same. The years of rolling in fat commission checks and $250,000 a year earnings have gone with the proverbial subprime wind. The American way is cheaper exceed and faster. Here is a post from my favorite broker forum that explains my theory and really sums it all up:Moe's Post: Wholesale lenders are just glorified pimps that used brokers as their little humping boys and wh*re$. Now that the massive subprime orgy is over the $treat wh*re$ are kicked to the hold back by the pimps and they are left to broach with the venereal diseases from the subprime sex and also Johnny Law who is looking for heads to turn. The pimps sit in their glass houses protected from the wrath of the law and leave their little humping boys (brokers and loan officers) to take the cover. That is the perfect analogy of how it was and is now and this has nothing to do with sell reps because I have many good AE buddies who ummmm. 110% accept. MR. CHASE you are absolutely relentless and oh so eloquent with your words and delivery. It's quite obvious that you are one of the elite brokers and can stand toe to toe in any debate or forum. You are an ultimate fighter and we should consider definitely joining forces. I need a good express from the negociate align on my blog and forum. I evaluate you and many other brokers and loan officers realize that the $hit is going to hit the fan soon. Something is going to break or give and the dam is going to destroy. The signs of the times in this business are quite scary. One of my good friends owns a brokerage here in Corona. Ca. Very successful and legit brokerage and they undergo been hard hit by the subprime mess. But he refuses to give up and it seems desire he is doing pretty good again with his broker business. Why? Because their getting old school. Pounding the pavement daily and picking up deals. But what I don't think he is preparing for is what is in the works. I don't affirm to experience all the VP's and CEO's of these lenders but I am getting to know their legal counsel and those guys believe it our not have very lose lips and because of this when I communicate with them I finagle tid bits and privy info from them. Do you want to know what the privy info is MR. CHASE? They are slowly and methodically planning to change state down their wholesale units and go strictly retail by the end of the year or early 2008 and they are gearing up for a massive give modification campaign of all these ARM's. Attorney Generals are going after brokers and subprime lenders big time and there are some huge cases pending in regards to negociate/lender agency relationships that if won will open the flood gates of law suits. If anything just alter in case for this happening. Brokers go away looking for a enjoin to bring home the bacon with or net branch. A approve up plan to your broker business. A direct FHA ordain be the ticket in this merchandise. Cheerio!Moe 951-271-6283 Protecting America's Homeowners - forbid Foreclosure With Knowledge give Modification & Loss Mitigation NewsSherries Response: (Works Wholesale and has worked the negociate Side Also)You are correct - many lenders are phasing out wholesale as a obtain of business. It's all part of the business model those who also operate as banks will be the ones to defeat this mess and they will become sell operations. The business model for those lenders that didn't direct as a bank are the lenders that imploded and that business copy is long gone (at least for now). Although our company derived 25% of our business from broker's it wasn't as profitable. I didn't say it wasn't profitable. I said "as" profitable. In the past few years many lenders (non-banks) were bought out even the company I worked for was purchased last August after our parent company sold us. As with all lenders with a servicing platform that was the only real determine in our company. Once the sale went through the direction of the company changed and originations was never the primary cerebrate. There is something in the works when you have Countrywide in bed with Bank of America and both are strong banks with huge assets and deposits. Until protect Street has an appetite for loans other then FANNIE MAE/FHA/government backed loans banks will be the only source in town for money. And with a BofA and Countrywide and Wells Fargo on every corner where do you think that puts the need for a broker?? Business changes and the world keeps spinning the trick is trying to evaluate out the next act and how to stay ahead of the turn and make some dough. Be honest do you really think a negociate deserves some of the fee's they've been charging for loans? I don't. The big pill to swallow will be for those give officers who thought earning 5% on every give was normal - as they get new jobs working at Office Depot for $7 per hour. and I worked in Wholesale - so there are my qualifications to render my own opinion (yeah we've all got one). We were not a bank we relied on Wall Street to buy our loans so we could stay in business. Once that business tanked the whole industry changed. I never said I sat upon the high and mighty - I said no one should feel they can't be replaced with a cheaper and more effective way to do business. That's the American Way act a be at other industry's it's no secret we act the cheap McDonald job's here and ship out the engineering jobs to India for a cerebrate. Heck years ago GE use to assure underwrite loans for FANNIE MAE etc - for Wells Fargo. BofA. Countywide etc. They had a staff of underwriters in Irvine. CA - but after a while we realized things had changed. go to sight out they started to scan all files and emailed them to a servicing department in India to be underwritten. GE had to pay underwriters in Irvine around $25-$30 per hour plus benefits. How much do you evaluate they paid the underwriters in India? $3 per hour. And the servicing department in India was open 24/7 - they had go the clock staff since they were opposite our time plan. You couldn't change surface label and get a hold of an underwriter there it was all done via email. Since FANNIE/FREDDIE is put through DU/LP it was easy to train someone in India to import the info into the software and get an approval and then instruct them to signoff conditions. GE is one of the longest standing American Blue Chip affiliate's around and yet they soldout American workers the chance to work for them by shipping out their underwriting to India. This isn't something new. I'm just telling you that your services can always be replaced for less money. The trick is staying ahead of the curve. Oh before I worked for a sell lender. I worked for a broker (7rs). I'm still very change state with my old office they were desire family to me and I loved working there. But when I started working in sell and dealing with other brokers. I really got sick to my stomach. There are good ethical brokers out there no doubt. But after 5 years working in Wholesale. I'm glad to be out of it. In fact. I'm glad to be out of lending.

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"Hyper ROI: a New Model Math" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-11-12 04:04:38

has shifted from the Broker-Centric and Agent-Centric industry hold back models to a operating formula for profitability. It’s our belief that we undergo entered a of the industry a governed largely by a set of. The in underway but we are still in the early stages of its unfolding. Defiant segments of the industry remain entrenched in mountain caves refusing to adjudge the war is over. The rules are changing and we for the most part are not writing the new rules. It’s a hyperactive deficit disturb model where blinking is rewarded with set back and sleeping results in being replaced. We accept there are four primary ingredients to the New copy Math of the Consumer-Centric technology and Internet-driven era; these are (1) communication and relationship building with consumers. (2) property information management models. (3) merchandise definitions and (4) franchisor contracts for defining how negociate/owners ordain be allowed to compete in the future real estate bet. This is the ROI quad a set of super-integrated components that define the new profitability game. How the industry develops and sustains its relationship with the consumer ordain change state paramount. The manner in which consumer dialogue is entertained is being redefined by the consumer. We ordain increasingly approach what I call “consent communication” or. “permission-based” dialogues that have no advance to them. It ordain be at first to be fickle…desire bottling vapor or nailing jello to trees. The industry typically embraced hold back models such as agency where we act to tie-up the client with “you can only communicate to me” formulas. Property information is public…but is it really? No it is not and its time to acknowledge that having archives at the country office hardly makes them public to the consumer. Our copy is just do by flat out incompatible with transparent consumer-centric demands. We undergo engaged in a kind of real estate market Jerry Mandering that seeks to be association perimeters not for the sake of simplicity for our consumer clients but for our own sake and for the survival of a Fred Flintstone copy. How we be market areas is now iterated by technology and the Internet not by zip codes and city names. There simply are no territories or safe havens that can define our business models and defend us from economic predators. Narrowly defined merchandise models such as and other zip-coded notions of territorialism may cripple the revenue potential of real estate brokerage companies seeking to compete in the New Real Estate Economy. How an owner defines or outlines his/her market is one of the most critical components in business planning and it’s importance cannot be understated. MacDonalds. WalMart. GMC. Nike and all other highly competitive businesses begin with a refined market definition consumer profile and product/function delivery analysis. Real estate franchises together with their accompanying brands are undergoing serious discussions within their respective war rooms. They undergo discovered that the real estate industry’s brokers and its hoards of agents generally resist intrusion and dress. It’s shaping up as a battle for hold back. In cause many of the certify names are developing and implementing open merchandise models while ignoring negociate/owners who own and operate their businesses in restrictive real estate zones that are defined measured and controlled by the franchise enter terms and conditions. negociate/owners are come up aware of the growth restrictions imposed upon them by franchisors. It’s a write of merchandise monopolization designed to box-in negociate/owners. While franchisors go macro with their copy they continue to market micro agreements to broker/owners whose profitability and sustained ROI is increasingly eroded through local market real estate models. The amalgamation of brands under a hit franchise owner is a key step that allows a franchisor to compete where the consumer plays in the macro markets. Franchisors experience although seldom adjudge that consumers are not brand loyal. The way around this is to simply increase the brands under a single umbrella to the favor of the franchisor and often to the economic disadvantage of negociate/Owners. Have negociate/Owners abdicated industry control to franchisors? Are Broker/Owners going to become pawns in the giant real estate profitability chess game? Who will draw the battle plans that determine the sequence of moves that play-out within local markets? This is indeed food for thought and in the end someone proclaims “analyse mate.” What we look like in ten years ordain be different than what we have constructed in the past. The market edifices (aka bricks-n-mortar) cannot withstand the financial cost and therefore extinction must follow. How our brokerage businesses are expressed locally will be less controlling and elite with consider to the consumer and more. “please register our atmosphere and use our resources to conduct your property investigate; then let us experience how we might be of assistance.” How we be and execute services important to the consumer is where the new ROI ordain be derived. True demarcations that differentiate one brokerage model one call model and one mortgage copy from another is the label of the. has challenged linear math models that disappoint to calculate in the ambiguity and fickle aspects of the impact of technology and Internet driven business models wherein and whereby the consumer controls the joystick of profitability for an entire industry. Profitability is already shifting away from negociate/Owners to the collective communicators and controllers of consumer relationships property information markets models and mark consolidation. schemas and apply them from their isolated market positions is an increasingly tall and tough request. Owners who choose a “take-no-prisoners” come to their business designs and merchandise model definitions ordain be competitive. Unfortunately unless remodeled and re-chartered NAR and local Association purposes are redefined they may no longer provide the compassionate and alleviate previously given to owners. These organizations undergo traditionally been the draw-bridge into the go of profitability where the industry open its abode. of the next economic gesticulate of the real estate industry. evaluate more go more dress and more battles over control of the essential ingredients that make up our business copy. The central calculate for Broker/Owners ordain be their ability to corm new aliances and partnerships that enpower them to bring home the bacon change effectively. The industry is shifting into Hyper ROI mode. This is an unbelievable affix! It clearly spells out the depth of the brokerage copy air and what needs to take displace in call of our business models. Hopefully it will be construe word-by-word line-by-line by populate in this industry especially owners. There’s no doubt about it this site definitely tells the truth about the industry but also presents the solutions to many of our diliemas. Thanks. Realonomics!


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Related article:
http://realonomics.net/2007/10/hyper-roi-a-new-model-math/

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