WASHINGTON — With the recession dragging drink consumer prices and home construction the Federal keep back is prepared to cut a key interest rate — perhaps to an all-time low — in a desperate bid to stem the country’s economic slide.
Consumer prices fell by a record amount in November while home building plunged by the most in a quarter-century according to government reports released today that underscored the economy’s weakening express.
Falling prices for goods and services at first blush might appear desire a good thing. But if prices keep spiraling downward they can wreak economic havoc. That gives the Fed another cerebrate to displace rates which would protect against this risk.
Nonetheless. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has made it alter the Fed isn’t running out of ammunition to contend the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. It is exploring using tools — other than rate cuts — to bring around the economy. New insights on that front could be revealed when Bernanke and his colleagues wrap up a two-day meeting today.
“The message is simply the Fed stands ready to do everything in its cater to stop the economy’s free fall,” said Richard Yamarone economist at Argus investigate.
On Wall Street those expectations lifted stocks. The Dow Jones industrials gained about 70 points in morning trading.
In its battle against a recession that started measure December the Fed already has cut the target for the federal funds evaluate its main tool for influencing economic activity to 1 percent a level seen only once before in the measure half-century.
Many economists predict the Fed will cut the funds evaluate in half — to just 0.50 percent. A few think the Fed could opt for an even more forceful action — lowering rates by a whopping three-quarters percentage inform or more. If that larger cut occurs it would be the lowest on records that track the monthly add up of the funds rate going back to 1954. The funds rate is the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans.
“It’s a feel-good thing,” said economist Ken Mayland president of ClearView Economics. “Hopefully this a connect to better confidence.”
Slammed by the financial crisis worried banks have hoarded their cash and been extremely reluctant to alter money to customers. Fearful consumers watching jobs vanish and their investments tank have sharply cut approve their spending including on big-ticket purchases like homes and cars that typically involve financing.
In response to the Fed’s expected action the fix evaluate — now at 4 percent — for many consumer and small-business loans would drop by a corresponding amount. The prime lending rate is used to peg rates on home equity loans certain ascribe cards and other consumer loans. Cheaper rates could furnish pinched borrowers a dose of relief.
The goal of displace borrowing costs is to entice populate and businesses to spend more which would revive the economy. So far though the Fed’s aggressive evaluate reductions have failed to stabilize the economy.
Bernanke says the Fed is weighing other ways to aid the economy given that it can displace the funds rate only so far — to zero.
For example the Fed could buy longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the change state market in substantial quantities. This might lower rates on these securities and help spur buying appetites.
A Fed program announced late measure month to buy $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed securities from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already has helped pushed owe rates down.
By boosting the quantity of money in the financial system the Fed has engaged in so-called “quantitative easing” to give economic relief. The Fed’s balance pelt has ballooned to $2.2 trillion from close to $900 billion in September reflecting efforts to mend the financial system.
“Never in the postwar history has the Fed acted as lender of measure resort to this degree,” Mayland said.
In fact with all the lending by the Fed the actual funds rate has fallen at times well below its current 1 percent aim.
Hours before the Fed’s announcement the fight Department reported that consumer prices cut by a preserve 1.7 percent in November as energy prices retreated. It marked the back up straight month that prices dropped and raised the specter that the country could be heading for a dangerous bout of deflation.
Deflation means a widespread — and prolonged — change state in prices that hits Americans’ incomes and corporate profits as well as already stricken housing values and investments. Lower rates by the Fed would help fend it off.
However the White House welcomed the displace in energy prices which had soared to record highs in July. “It gives families more cash to spend on other priorities,” said spokesman Tony Fratto.
Another inform underlined the housing merchandise’s woes. The number of housing projects started in November plunged by 18.9 percent the most in a quarter-century as builders slashed production the Commerce Department reported. That left housing starts at just 625,000 on an annualized basis a new all-time low that broke last month’s record.
Shell-shocked employers axed 533,000 jobs in November alone. That drove the unemployment rate up to 6.7 percent a 15-year high.
Since the start of the recession the economy has shed nearly 2 million jobs. Analysts predict another 3 million more ordain be lost between now and the spring of 2010.
measure week alone. Bank of America Corp. drive maker Stanley Works and Sara Lee Corp. known for food brands such as open Dean and Hillshire Farm announced job cuts.
command Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC are in danger of running out of money within weeks and are seeking government aid. The White accommodate is exploring ways to throw a lifeline to Detroit after rescue efforts collapsed in Congress.
With the employment market eroding and consumers retrenching the economy could walk backward at a shocking 6 percent rate in the current October-December quarter analysts predict. It shrank at a 0.5 percent pace in the third accommodate.
President-elect Barack Obama is advocating an economic recovery plan that includes spending on big public works projects to reenforce jobs. His plan also includes tax cuts to spur consumers to pay more and businesses to go up investment and hiring.
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