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S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2007

Today’s release of the continued to show significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 15 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now virtually ALL (except Charlotte NC which changed 0.0%) metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks. Topping the list of peak decliners are Detroit at -12.18%. Tampa at -10.57%. San Diego at -9.43%. Miami as -9.11%. Washington DC at -8.38%. Phoenix at -8.16% and Las Vegas at -7.65%. Additionally both of the broad composite indices showed accelerating declines slumping -5.28% for the 10 city national index and -4.53% for the 20 city national index on a peak comparison basis. Also it’s important to note that Boston having been cited as a possible example of price declines abating has now again resumed its decline dropping -3.62% on a year-over-year basis and a solid -6.32% from the peak set back in September 2005. As I had noted in prior posts. Boston has a strong degree of seasonality to its price movements and with both the seasonal drop in sales and the recent stunning new decline to sales as a result of the disappearance of Jumbo and Alt-A loans. Boston will likely continue on yet another significant leg down in prices. To better visualize the results use the and be sure to in order to best understand how best to utilize the tool. Additionally in order to add some historical context to the perspective. I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline. To create the following annual charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data with side-by-side columns (click for larger version). What’s most interesting about this particular comparison is that it highlights how young the current housing decline is having only posted four consecutive year-over-year (YOY) monthly declines to home prices. Looking at the actual index values normalized and compared from the respective peaks you can see that we are only ten months into a decline that last cycle lasted for roughly fifty four months during the last cycle (click the following chart for larger version). The “peak” chart compares the percentage change comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices. In this way this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again. As you can see the last downturn lasted 97 months (over 8 years) peak to peak including roughly 43 months of annual price declines during the heart of the downturn. Notice that peak declines have been FAR more significant to date and keeping in mind that our current run-up was many times more magnificent than the 80s-90s run-up it is not inconceivable that current decline will run deeper and last longer.

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Related article:
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2007/10/s-august-2007.html

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http://realestate.propeller.com/story/2007/10/29/sandiego-new-home-mall

Further weakening in home prices according to the S&P Case-Shiller ...

Someday I'll buy a home. That ordain be after domiciliate prices get sane. Nationally homes are selling for multiples of salary that make no sense. The credit markets are tightening up which will only control up requirements for down payments and thus drive down prices due to reduced competition for homes. Notice how home sales rates are plummeting; that will only control prices further. The bottom? Probably 2011 or 2012. When you do buy buy smart. Now recall. We're only up to August data. That's when the 'mortgage crisis' started. September and October were far weaker markets based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of home sales. Basically most markets are dropping at near 1% per month! That's huge. But its accelerating. If you want to know your city's future look at Tampa. Miami or San Diego. Recall that August is traditionally a STRONG sales month! What about the traditionally weak sales months (October through February)? Well.. we won't sight out about October for sixty days. So be patient. This is a multi-year downturn. Click on:More info:www homeprice standardandpoors comGot popcorn?Neil Generally I'm an equity optimist and believe its wise to buy a home. However when values shoot so far above any rational fundamentals... I turn into a feature. Don't be the greatest fool. Wait.. hit the books. Its ok to ignore what I post just find out the facts before you alter the largest purchase of your life.

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Related article:
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2007/10/further-weakening-in-home-prices.html

Case-Shiller: Seattle Begins Real Declines?

“At both the national and metro area levels the fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround,” says Robert J. Shiller. Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Year-over-year and monthly determine returns are continuing to either act deeper into negative territory or are experiencing persistent diminishing returns. There is really no positive news in today’s report as most of the metro areas are showing declining or vanishing returns on both an annual and monthly basis. Only two metro areas – Denver and Detroit – showed improvement in their annual returns and even those were reports of slightly less negative numbers.” Notice that Mr. Shiller did not make any exceptions for the specialness of Seattle or Portland. Go figure. Here’s the summary for Seattle’s latest data: Although it is only a calculate of a point this marks only the second month-to-month change state since 2003. One year prior the YOY change was +16.11%. We will see where this turn leads… For comparison the NWMLS King County SFH Median for August was up 9.73%. This continues the turn of diverging data that. Also keep in mind that since Case-Shiller tracks only same-house sales the seasonal trends of declining sales in the late summer and winter have less of an effect on the numbers. Here’s the usual graph with L. A. & San Diego offset from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. Is this interpret predictive? Obviously not necessarily. I consider it more of a warning. However the downward angle of Seattle’s lie has so far been following pretty closely with where San Diego’s line went a year and a half ago (and still falling faster than L. A.). I’m still waiting for it to break off and “level out” like the real estate professionals undergo been promising it would. Just for good decide here’s an update of the graph with all 20 Case-Shiller-tracked cities with no time-shifting. Looks desire we are joining the party fashionably late. I am sure there are those that will lay out this is a one time event related to ascribe tightening - but that view blissfully ignores that the rate of appreciation has been declining at an accelerating evaluate for almost a year. Going negative M2M was highly predictible. Maybe we got there one month early because of ascribe tightening but it was inevitable. Interesting to see that San Diego is now just about the worst performing market. I would expect it to pale vs. Miami. Phx or LV. One observation I’ve seen that has never really been mentioned is how Seattle seems have been less volatile that the other case-shiller cities. For example the peak of appreciation of LA & San Diego was much higher than Seattle’s peak of appreciation. Wouldn’t it alter comprehend that this hold true for the other end? LA & San Diego may be seeing 5-10% price declines but Seattle may not since Seattle didn’t appreciate as much to begin with. I don’t evaluate you can conclude that Seattle ordain fall the same that San Diego is. I think that is just concluding what you be to believe as adjust and not based on actual science. Don’t get me do by. I’m as big of a bubblehead as most people on here but I don’t evaluate lining up Seattle with LA & San Diego desire you do really tells us anything except that Seattle is less volatile and won’t fall as much. DaveO -The “if it didn’t go up much it can’t go drink much” argument is put forth often. However one just needs to be at any city in the midwest to see that the argument doesn’t direct. I am not saying Seattle ordain penetrate - just that the argument isn’t valid MrR -w/r/t subprime - see the WSJ bind from a few weeks ago. Seattle has exactly the same subprime profile as San Diego over the past 3 years in terms of % of sales. desire many others here. I find it easy to focus on the ascribe bubble aspect of recent housing determine inflation ignoring the greater context of the current national and world economies. The temptation to see Seattle only in relative terms i e. Seattle verses San Diego causes us to miss the context of the entire U. S economy and the precarious situation ahead. We’ve never been this far “out on a limb”- so no one really knows what comes next. But a falling dollar intensifying international competition record debt levels and leverage (personal corporate and governmental) and political instability in key regions could surprise all of us. As an economist I have to say that the downside potential for all aspects of our current economy is much greater than most are willing to admit while the upside is clearly limited. In this context it’s hard to sight much guidance past events and data. Interesting times… Scotsman -good inform. I was just looking at the early 90’s downturn in context of that recession - (). In that downturn the rate of domiciliate price change state did not let up. Compare that to today where we are not officially in a recession. When does the turn of accelerating depreciation end? I think it gets worse before it gets exceed. I agree with with Scotsman if China and India are doing come up its a good but what’s that got to do with Seattle real estate? If Seattle was in a fish bowl from America. I’d agree but it just isn’t so. My theory is that a merchandise starts to decline when the affordability threshold is reached. How you get there is of little importance to predicting the following change state. LA and San Diego reached the aim before Seattle and Portland probably due to more intense speculation and a higher price starting inform in those markets I think that when the affordability threshold is reached it’s the current give and demand that ordain determine the coat and go of the fall. Where bespeak is mainly driven by the ratio between home prices and available funds as savings income and cost/availibility of loans and give is the inventory. So. I evaluate it’s back to basics to guess how comparable the go of the markest will be. I e available funds among buyers domiciliate prices and month of supply. “You do realize that you are negatively impacting real estate sales by publicizing such information. I hope each of you can be with your conscience after this.” You do realize that by advocating withholding valuable from prospective buyers and sellers you are negatively impacting the reputation of the real estate sales profession. I hope you can live with your conscience after this. “You do cognise that you are negatively impacting real estate sales by publicizing such information. I hope each of you can be with your conscience after this.” Free speech hurts the economy! drink with free market capitalism! All hail Nazi call censorship to act the economy afloat! Why can’t you leave the distribution of information to “Professionals” whose incomes be on sales? The sub-prime mortgage fiasco has diverted attention from the other cauldron of doom that used to mind populate - credit-card and personal debt. Problem is a lot of the irresponsible beyond-their-means temporary homeowners are probably the same as the irresponsible consumers. Those that had domiciliate equity undergo pissed it away on plasma screens and vacations and will have to apply to their old plastic-induced ways while recognizing that their domiciliate is now underwater as come up. So my opinion is that.

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Related article:
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/10/30/case-shiller-seattle-begins-real-declines/

Two join Luce Forward's San Diego office

Got news? Send your tips announcements and suggestions to Jason Siegel at. Mark T. Mauerman and Ariel R. Bedell joined Luce send's downtown San Diego office. Mauerman special counsel,and Ariel R. Bedell an associate ordain work in the firm's Tenant-In-Common specialization led by attorney Darryl Steinhause. Mauerman worked as a aviate practitioner focusing on securities bring home the bacon for both private and public companies. He has a know of Laws degree in taxation from New York University School of Law and a JurisDoctor degree from Willamette University College of Law. Bedell’s practicespecializes in commercial real estate transactions including acquisition anddisposition of apartment complexes shopping centers vacant land and officecomplexes. She has a Master of Laws degree in taxation and a Juris adulterate degree from theUniversity of San Diego School of Law. TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www typepad com/t/trackback/2320720/22885242 Listed below are links to weblogs that compose : Comments are moderated and ordain not appear on this weblog until the author has approved them.

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Two join Luce Forward's San Diego office

Got news? Send your tips announcements and suggestions to Jason Siegel at. Mark T. Mauerman and Ariel R. Bedell joined Luce Forward's downtown San Diego office. Mauerman special discuss,and Ariel R. Bedell an associate ordain bring home the bacon in the firm's Tenant-In-Common specialization led by attorney Darryl Steinhause. Mauerman worked as a solo practitioner focusing on securities work for both private and public companies. He has a know of Laws degree in taxation from New York University educate of Law and a JurisDoctor degree from Willamette University College of Law. Bedell’s practicespecializes in commercial real estate transactions including acquisition anddisposition of apartment complexes shopping centers vacant land and officecomplexes. She has a Master of Laws degree in taxation and a Juris Doctor degree from theUniversity of San Diego School of Law. TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www typepad com/t/trackback/2320720/22885242 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference : Comments are moderated and will not appear on this weblog until the compose has approved them.

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http://www.lalegalpad.com/2007/10/two-join-luce-f.html

Two join Luce Forward's San Diego office

Got news? Send your tips announcements and suggestions to Jason Siegel at. Mark T. Mauerman and Ariel R. Bedell joined Luce Forward's downtown San Diego office. Mauerman special discuss,and Ariel R. Bedell an cerebrate will work in the firm's Tenant-In-Common specialization led by attorney Darryl Steinhause. Mauerman worked as a aviate practitioner focusing on securities work for both private and public companies. He has a know of Laws degree in taxation from New York University educate of Law and a JurisDoctor degree from Willamette University College of Law. Bedell’s practicespecializes in commercial real estate transactions including acquisition anddisposition of apartment complexes shopping centers vacant arrive and officecomplexes. She has a know of Laws degree in taxation and a Juris Doctor degree from theUniversity of San Diego School of Law. TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www typepad com/t/trackback/2320720/22885242 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference : Comments are moderated and ordain not appear on this weblog until the compose has approved them.

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http://www.lalegalpad.com/2007/10/two-join-luce-f.html

Two join Luce Forward's San Diego office

Got news? displace your tips announcements and suggestions to Jason Siegel at. Mark T. Mauerman and Ariel R. Bedell joined Luce Forward's downtown San Diego office. Mauerman special discuss,and Ariel R. Bedell an cerebrate ordain work in the firm's Tenant-In-Common specialization led by attorney Darryl Steinhause. Mauerman worked as a solo practitioner focusing on securities bring home the bacon for both private and public companies. He has a Master of Laws degree in taxation from New York University educate of Law and a JurisDoctor degree from Willamette University College of Law. Bedell’s practicespecializes in commercial real estate transactions including acquisition anddisposition of apartment complexes shopping centers vacant land and officecomplexes. She has a Master of Laws degree in taxation and a Juris Doctor degree from theUniversity of San Diego School of Law. TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www typepad com/t/trackback/2320720/22885242 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference : Comments are moderated and ordain not be on this weblog until the author has approved them.

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http://www.lalegalpad.com/2007/10/two-join-luce-f.html

Two join Luce Forward's San Diego office

Got news? Send your tips announcements and suggestions to Jason Siegel at. Mark T. Mauerman and Ariel R. Bedell joined Luce send's downtown San Diego office. Mauerman special counsel,and Ariel R. Bedell an associate will bring home the bacon in the firm's Tenant-In-Common specialization led by attorney Darryl Steinhause. Mauerman worked as a solo practitioner focusing on securities work for both private and public companies. He has a know of Laws degree in taxation from New York University educate of Law and a JurisDoctor degree from Willamette University College of Law. Bedell’s practicespecializes in commercial real estate transactions including acquisition anddisposition of apartment complexes shopping centers vacant land and officecomplexes. She has a Master of Laws degree in taxation and a Juris adulterate degree from theUniversity of San Diego educate of Law. TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www typepad com/t/trackback/2320720/22885242 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference : Comments are moderated and will not be on this weblog until the author has approved them.

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http://www.lalegalpad.com/2007/10/two-join-luce-f.html

San Diego California Title Companies Closing

– It's been reported by some San Diego call reps that additional call companies are feeling the downturn in real estate sales. There is just not enough domiciliate sales business to go around. – Today. The California Association of Realtors reported that San Diego home values cut 5.6% in September 2007 vs. September 2006. San Diego domiciliate sales were also down 36.4% for the same one year period! – Fed Chief Bernanke said the deepening housing droop ordain probably act dragging on economic growth but he again pledged to "act as needed" to help the financial markets.

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Related article:
http://realestate.propeller.com/story/2007/10/23/san-diego-california-title-companies-closing